4/11/2018 Market Assessment

Lately I’ve been struggling to stay true to my trading plan…I’ll talk about that in a minute. But first..I have also failed to post on here and share any learnings I might have had.

Recently the market has been so volatile that I have tried not to over trade, but there are a ton of very good looking bargains out there now! I love how a lot of the oversold charts look and I think there are many great buying opportunities out there. For me personally, I will be establishing smaller positions with tight stops. I think traders should be careful. It looks like we have tested the bottom several times and we may either be in a period of consolidation or possibly start to turn some gears and recoup some of the years losses.

In my opinion, we are definitely not in a bear market, but I continue to monitor the trade war “talk” and the Russia situation. If either escalates too quickly we might be in for a lot more uncertainty and a lot more volatility. From looking at crude oil futures this morning, /CL is once again attempting to push through the 66 area. Will this third run up be the one that pushes through into new highs? We shall see. I suppose it may have something to do with the Russia tensions and a favorable EIA report. I’ve been bullish oil for a while though and have spotted some of my favorites at buying levels, including PKD that’s trading well into oversold territory. I also like WFT, DNR, XOM.

I have a confession to make regarding staying true to my trading plan. Recently I have been day trading UVXY with all of the recent volatility in an attempt to accumulate a massive amount of wealth in a very short period of time….thinking that I could beat the market at its most volatile time in recent memory. There were great days where the chart was so predictive and money was easily made, then there were days I could not figure it out. I would place a big trade and it would immediately go against me. I would continue to believe I could outsmart the market and make my money back, but this was not the case. My good days were great, but my bad days were worse.

In short, I learned I’m not made for day trading. I am not efficient and it takes away any bit of the system I have in place for myself to be a profitable trader. My swing trading system based on oversold charts works for me and that’s what I need to stick to.

Lesson here: Stick to your trading plan.